Football is a game that constantly evolves on the pitch. The Premier League is in its golden era, as it has some of the best managers in the world in Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp. However, it’s not just the tactics on the pitch that are constantly changing, but the approach to betting on the game too. In this guide, we will look at five lesser-known tips that are becoming used more in football betting.
When two big teams face off with one another, it can often create a sense of do-or-die before heading into the game. That’s from the fans, at least… While players do live for big games too, we shouldn’t underestimate the impact of settling for a draw. Or, even if it’s not settling on purpose, two top teams can often create a stalemate and cancel each other out.
Over the past few months, Manchester United’s two biggest games — Liverpool away and Spurs at home — both ended in draws. There is a feeling around the club, which isn’t in its best spell, that this isn’t a disaster. In such high-stress environments when the manager and players are under pressure, teams can adopt a more cautious approach. As the game unfolds, both teams often feel satisfied in walking away with a draw, making it a good option for betting.
When betting on the Premier League, you’re betting against millions of other participants. This can make it tricky to get an edge, as there are millions of people with the same access to information and will have similar judgements. When it comes to the top UK gambling platforms, they offer many more markets than just the Premier League.
In lesser-known leagues, there’s a better opportunity to become a specialist. Perhaps it’s your local team, for example, that you will know better than the many people using your team in a throw-away accumulator.
The other type of person involved is people whose local team it is, which could be like yourself. This is an issue, as many punters will blindly back their own team. But, this creates an opportunity for you to capitalise on, as many of the betting participants are either biased or lack knowledge.
When we consider just how much money players are paid, and how talented they are, it’s difficult to give enough credit to outside factors like the weather or the distance they travel for the game. However, it’s proving time and time again that these influences are very much real, as away games far away are considered more psychologically difficult (Arsenal lost 2-1 to Lens, only for them to thrash them 6-0 at home soon after with a very similar XI.)
In the winter, it could be argued that some teams are more accustomed. For example, German teams vs Spanish teams in European games. But it’s also the jet lag, travel lethargy, and the pitch itself which may be compromised in snow or heavy rain.
High-profile matches often attract disproportionate attention from the general public, leading to skewed betting patterns. This is more of an advantage when the additional viewers are less knowledgeable, such as the people who turn on the world cup final.
There’s often a narrative or a story that people enjoy in those moments, but they don’t always live up to that. For example, an underdog that makes its way into the final to everyone’s surprise may receive a lot of unwarranted bets, because it’s a romantic expectation. The fact that this is on a larger scale due to it being a big game makes this more common, and more extreme, meaning you can find good value in countering the dominant narrative.
If you’re savvy with numbers, corner betting, which often stays on the periphery, can have a lot to offer. Certain teams win or concede more corners over time, and these patterns can be remarkably consistent. There are a lot of maths underlying this too — for example, certain goalkeepers may be more prone to parrying the ball out (instead of catching it) than others.
There are a lot of advanced statistics that you can make use of, and perhaps even Machine Learning techniques. You have to already be comfortable with statistics, or at the very least, have an interest in studying them for this to work.
Advanced metrics like the average positioning of defenders during attacks, the frequency of crosses by attacking players, and the tactical setups of teams can provide insightful indicators for corner betting. There are many more basic metrics too, like shots [conceded] per game, shots on target, and so on. Sometimes, a single player can be responsible for a high percentage of shots for a team - in the case of an injury, this would be an example of avoiding that bet.
The strategies outlined offer a different perspective but come with the usual caveats of betting: there's always an inherent risk. However, some of these techniques, like the corner one, can actually help you develop certain skills.